Macquarie: Fed statement wording may shift hawkishly, with a rate hike most likely in December

Odaily Planet Daily News David Doyle, head of economic research at Macquarie Group, stated that the Fed will not adjust interest rates at this meeting, but this marks the first time this year that the policy decision appears less clear-cut, with the market-implied probability of a rate hike at around 35%. Warsh’s phrasing and the voting stance of committee members will be key. In addition to the rate decision itself, the market may also focus on whether there are dissenting votes, any changes to the statement wording, and the communication style of Chairman Warsh at the press conference.

If rates remain unchanged, dissenting votes are likely to emerge, and the number of such votes will depend on the extent of the hawkish adjustment in the statement wording. It is still expected that the next policy move is likely to be a rate hike, with December being the most probable timing. The description of the unemployment rate in the upcoming statement may become more optimistic. The June statement described it as "little changed," but subsequent data showed another slight decline in the unemployment rate. Additionally, the risk of further adjustments to the statement wording leans toward the hawkish side, potentially including language suggesting a future tightening bias. (Jinshi Data)