TD Securities expects the dollar to weaken after the Fed holds rates steady
2026-07-29 08:09
Odaily Odaily Planet Daily News: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will announce the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on July 29. The market widely expects the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for the fifth consecutive time. Data from CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hold is between 95% and 98%.
TD Securities stated that traders are still overestimating the probability of a surprise rate hike, and the related pricing includes a risk premium due to the Iran situation. The institution believes that if the Fed holds rates steady as expected, the deviation between current market pricing and actual policy action will narrow.
TD Securities predicts that if the Fed keeps rates unchanged for an extended period, the dollar could fall by about 2% in the second half of 2026. The institution believes that the Fed needs to see clearer evidence of sustained inflation and a strong labor market before considering a rate hike.
TD Securities stated that traders are still overestimating the probability of a surprise rate hike, and the related pricing includes a risk premium due to the Iran situation. The institution believes that if the Fed holds rates steady as expected, the deviation between current market pricing and actual policy action will narrow.
TD Securities predicts that if the Fed keeps rates unchanged for an extended period, the dollar could fall by about 2% in the second half of 2026. The institution believes that the Fed needs to see clearer evidence of sustained inflation and a strong labor market before considering a rate hike.
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