Polymarket's "US-Iran ceasefire before July 24" probability drops to 36%, down 15% in 24 hours

The PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that the probability of a "ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 24" on Polymarket has dropped to 36%, down 15% in 24 hours.

This event will settle as "Yes" if the US does not take any military actions that meet the defined criteria against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline; otherwise, it will settle as "No."

Qualifying military actions include only US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks that directly strike Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Excluded actions include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyberattacks, naval shelling, artillery attacks, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions.

If there is a dispute regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of relevant military actions, the event will await consensus from official information and credible media before being adjudicated. If disagreements persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at that time. The settlement basis includes official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries, as well as reports from credible media outlets.

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