Reuters Survey: Analysts Cut Gold Price Forecasts for First Time Since Late 2023, Central Bank Buying Expected to Cushion Decline

According to a Reuters survey, after gold prices fell sharply from January's record highs, analysts have cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since late 2023. However, most still expect central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability to provide support. The median gold price forecast for 2026, based on a survey of 29 analysts and traders over the past three weeks, stands at $4,509 per ounce. This figure is lower than the $4,916 predicted three months ago and marks the first downgrade in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 is $4,610 per ounce, compared to $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January, but experienced a sharp pullback in the second quarter as the Iran conflict exacerbated energy inflation and fueled expectations of interest rate hikes, resulting in the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Spot gold has fallen approximately 22% since the outbreak of the war. (Jin Shi)