Analyst: CXMT Surges on Debut, but Still Faces Uphill Battle to Alter Global DRAM Landscape

Odaily reported that a Milk Road AI analyst posted an analysis on X regarding the surge in CXMT's (ChangXin Memory Technologies) stock price. The analyst noted that in the past year, CXMT's global DRAM market share has risen from less than 4% to approximately 7.7%-8%. In the first quarter of this year, its revenue surged 719% year-over-year to 50.8 billion RMB. This growth is primarily attributed to Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron shifting more production capacity towards AI server memory (especially HBM), creating a supply gap in the traditional DDR5 and LPDDR5 markets, which CXMT has capitalized on to fill the demand for mid-to-low-end DRAM.

However, CXMT's current production capacity remains far from sufficient to meet global demand. Its monthly wafer capacity is approximately 290,000 to 320,000 wafers, significantly lower than Samsung's roughly 630,000 wafers and SK Hynix's approximately 500,000 wafers. Additionally, US export restrictions on advanced lithography equipment are also constraining CXMT's pace of further expansion.

The analyst believes that CXMT will find it difficult to enter the HBM market in the short term and therefore will not change the supply-demand dynamics of AI memory. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will continue to maintain their advantages in high-margin products such as HBM, server DRAM, and LPDDR5X, suggesting that the global memory shortage cycle may persist.