Polymarket probability of "effective ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 31" rises to 59%, up 19% in a single day

The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "effective ceasefire between the US and Iran before July 31" on Polymarket has risen to 59%, up 19% in a single day.

This event will settle as "Yes" if the US takes no qualifying military action against Iran for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline; otherwise, it will settle as "No."

Qualifying military actions include only US-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks that directly strike Iranian territory, including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

Actions not counted include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyber attacks, naval shelling, artillery attacks, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions.

If there is a dispute regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a military action, the event will await a consensus formed by official information and credible media before being adjudicated. If differences persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at that time.

Settlement will be based on official information from the US and Iranian governments and military, as well as credible media reports.

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