Polymarket probability of WTI crude oil breaking $95/barrel in July drops to 53%, down 16% in 24 hours

Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the Polymarket event "WTI Crude Oil Price in July," the probability of WTI crude oil breaking $95/barrel has dropped to 53%, a 16% decline in 24 hours; the probability of breaking $100/barrel has fallen to 27%, a 13% decrease in 24 hours.

According to market sources, oil prices are still on track for a significant weekly gain due to escalating disruptions to energy shipments in the Red Sea and concerns over a further escalation of the war with Iran, maintaining a 10% weekly increase. "The ongoing U.S. attacks on Iran, further involvement of the Houthis in the Red Sea, and the disruption of the CPC pipeline are squeezing crude oil supply again, leading to an inevitable price rise," said analyst Janiv Shah, adding that the current level of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz appears to be approaching the peak levels seen in March.

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