Polymarket probability of a "two-week ceasefire" between the US and Iran by August 31 is currently 51%, down 3% in a week

The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitors that in the Polymarket prediction event "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire," the probability for August 14 is currently 34%, down 1% in a week; the probability for August 31 is currently 51%, down 3% in a week.

According to the resolution rules, if at any point between the market creation and the specified deadline (Eastern Time 23:59), there begins a consecutive 14-day period during which the US does not conduct qualifying military actions against Iran, the market will resolve to "Yes." Qualifying military actions refer to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks initiated by the US that directly strike targets within Iranian territory.

It is reported that the US military has conducted strikes against Iranian military targets for the 13th consecutive night, and Iran has rejected the ceasefire proposal put forward by Trump. Neither side has yet signaled de-escalation in the short term. However, according to sources close to the matter, Trump has become increasingly frustrated with the protracted war, while his advisors worry that the conflict has driven up prices, hurt approval ratings, and resulted in the deaths of over a dozen US soldiers. This continues to drain the political capital of the Trump administration and could further impact the Republican Party's prospects in the midterm elections.

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