Opinion: The Market Overlooks the "Gray Rhino" Risk; Oil Prices Returning to $100 Could Impact the Global Economy

Odaily reported that Jiang Zhuoer stated on platform X that the market is currently overlooking a massive "gray rhino" risk – the sustained rise in international oil prices. He pointed out that Brent crude oil prices have rebounded to near $95. Against the backdrop where both the US and Iran are unable to fundamentally resolve the conflict in the short term, nor reach a compromise on the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation may become deadlocked, making further increases in oil prices almost inevitable.

Jiang Zhuoer believes that if disruptions to transportation through the Strait of Hormuz continue, it would have disastrous consequences for the global economy. He also stated that global commercial and government strategic petroleum reserves have been significantly depleted. Total US crude oil inventories (combining commercial stocks and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) have fallen to their lowest level since 1984. Once international oil prices break through $100 again, market sentiment could rapidly deteriorate.