德意志银行：若美联储选择量化紧缩而非加息，美元可能走软

According to Odaily, Deutsche Bank analyst George Saravelos stated in a report that if the Federal Reserve shifts its policy focus from raising interest rates to shrinking its balance sheet (quantitative tightening) to tighten monetary policy, the US dollar may weaken. He noted that Japan's experience is worth learning from; despite the Bank of Japan's slow pace of interest rate hikes, it has withdrawn liquidity through quantitative tightening at a record speed, yet the yen remains at historic lows.

Additionally, tightening the balance sheet may lead to policy conflicts with the Trump administration, which has clearly stated its desire to keep long-term Treasury yields low. He also indicated that the independence of the Bank of Japan continues to attract market attention. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has even discussed using domestic savings to support the Japanese bond market. (Jin Shi)