Stanford study: Suspected manipulator profits $8.2 million from Polymarket five-minute Bitcoin betting market

Odaily News: Researchers at Stanford University have identified signs of manipulation in Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin betting markets. The study analyzed contract data over approximately two months and found repeated one-way trading pulses on Binance that briefly impacted Bitcoin prices seconds before the betting period ended, benefiting those with aligned positions. Researchers described this pattern as "temporary manipulation to push up spot prices" and pointed out a structural vulnerability in such contracts: participants can influence the outcome by trading the underlying asset that determines the winner or loser. A Polymarket spokesperson stated that the platform uses multiple independent price oracles to ensure accuracy and plans to transition some markets to settlement methods with longer time windows next year to enhance market integrity. The study estimates that the suspected manipulator earned approximately $8.2 million in profits over two months, primarily from retail losses.