Analysts lower SK Hynix Q2 earnings expectations but anticipate sustained long-term profit growth

Odaily Odaily News: Citrini analyst jukan posted on X platform that KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae expects SK Hynix's operating profit for the second quarter of 2026 to be 60.4 trillion Korean won, up 61% quarter-on-quarter and 556% year-on-year, which is 8% lower than the market consensus of 65 trillion Korean won.

The analyst stated that the lowered expectations are mainly due to SK Hynix's higher proportion of HBM sales compared to peers, lower-than-expected price increases for general DRAM, and the stabilization of ASP (Average Selling Price) driven by Long-Term Supply Agreements (LTAs). The forecast for the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the comprehensive DRAM ASP in Q2 2026 has been lowered to 28.9%, down from the previous 50.0%; the growth rate for commodity DRAM ASP has been reduced to 34.2%, down from the previous 60.6%. With the mass production of HBM4 officially commencing in the third quarter of 2026, the comprehensive ASP growth rate is expected to return to an average market level of approximately 10% quarter-on-quarter.

However, the analyst believes this adjustment does not signal a downturn for the industry. The recent revision is a more realistic reflection of the 3 to 5-year LTA structure and is expected to lead to more stable long-term profit growth. The year-on-year operating profit growth rates for the fiscal years 2026 through 2028 are projected to be 419%, 53%, and 19%, respectively.