ETH Ushers in "Golden July"? Institutions and Supply-Demand Dynamics Could Become New Catalysts for Ethereum's "New Cycle"

Odaily News, Sharplink research director Steven Ehrlich stated on platform X that Ethereum (ETH) has started July 2026 with strong momentum, gaining approximately 11% so far this month. Historical data suggests investors should pay attention to ETH's July performance. Over the past 10 years, ETH has posted gains in July on four occasions, with an average increase of 43% in those months. Since 2020, July has been ETH's strongest-performing month, with an average gain of about 27%, leading all other months.

The core advantage of ETH's July performance is not simply volatility but the asymmetry between gains and losses: when July is positive, the average gain is approximately 43%; in losing years, the average decline is only about 5% (2020 to 2025). Historically, strong Julys for ETH have often coincided with Ethereum-specific catalysts:

July 2020: Gained 54%, marking the launch of "DeFi Summer." Compound introduced the COMP token, triggering a yield farming frenzy. DeFi total value locked (TVL) surged from about $1 billion to $4 billion within weeks, DEX monthly trading volume grew by 174%, and ETH benefited as the foundational infrastructure of DeFi.

July 2022: Gained 58%. The timeline for The Merge upgrade was confirmed on July 14, market sentiment rebounded from the post-LUNA and 3AC crisis low, and approximately $337 million in short positions were liquidated within 3 days.

July 2025: Gained 49%. The US GENIUS Act was signed, spot ETH ETFs recorded a record monthly inflow of approximately $5.4 billion, corporate capital accelerated its allocation to ETH, staking rate reached about 30%, and declining exchange balances contributed to supply tightness.

Historically, ETH's strong monthly rallies have typically been driven by a combination of "Ethereum-specific catalysts plus supply-demand imbalance." For July 2026, Steven Ehrlich believes the current market environment presents similar opportunities:

1. Institutional infrastructure is being built. EthLabs (protocol R&D) and Ethereum Institutional were recently launched to drive institutional participation in the on-chain ecosystem, with participants including Sharplink, BitMine, and Joe Lubin.

2. The Ethereum roadmap continues to upgrade. Vitalik Buterin proposed the "Lean Ethereum" plan on July 4, aiming to simplify Ethereum's architecture, increase speed, and enhance quantum resistance over the next 3 to 4 years. Its significance is comparable to The Merge.

3. Corporate capital continues to accumulate ETH. Digital asset reserve companies are still actively building their ETH positions. Sharplink currently holds 886,725 ETH, added 10,000 ETH in purchases last week, and stated its goal is to increase the amount of ETH per share.

Steven Ehrlich stated that Ethereum is entering a new phase of development, where institutional adoption, technological upgrades, and capital allocation may become key factors driving ETH's price action.