Polymarket probability of "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1" rises to 73%, up 33% in 24H

Monitoring by Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 73%, up 33% in 24H.

If Anthropic reopens Claude Fable 5 (or Claude Mythos, or a version confirmed to be the same model) to the US public before the specified date, this event will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". Qualifying methods of restoration include public beta or public waitlist; closed testing and private access do not count. Other models such as Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus are not included by default unless they are confirmed to be the same model as Claude Fable 5. Settlement will primarily be based on official announcements from Anthropic, supplemented by consensus reports from mainstream media.

Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9. Although the restrictions were primarily aimed at foreign users, due to the difficulty of real-time user identity screening, Anthropic ultimately closed access for all users, including those in the US, and switched requests to less capable models such as Opus 4.8. Anthropic is currently engaged in high-level discussions with the White House on issues including model capabilities and potential jailbreak risks. The company has publicly stated that the ban may have stemmed from a misunderstanding and is actively pushing to restore access.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.