UBS: Falling Oil Prices Will Ease Pressure on Fed Rate Hikes

Odaily Planet Daily News Leslie Falconio, currently serving as the head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, stated that following reports of a deal between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which suppressed oil prices and triggered a rally in U.S. Treasuries, the pressure for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year is easing.

Leslie Falconio pointed out that even before the ceasefire, as oil prices fell, "the two-year yield was still rising because the market was pricing in nearly 100% probability of a rate hike by December 2026." "What is happening now is that oil prices are falling, and the market is stripping out these rate hike expectations. That is why the two-year yield is declining."

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will chair his first monetary policy decision meeting this week. As surging crude oil prices accelerate inflation, voices within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) supporting rate hikes this year are growing louder. Leslie Falconio expects the FOMC to formally remove its accommodative bias at this week's meeting, paving the way for a more hawkish outlook. However, she stated that she still expects the next move to be a rate cut, likely in 2027. (Bloomberg)