“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity: Technical Analysis Is More Like "Trader Astrology"; Should Return to Fundamentals and Capital Structure

Odaily reports: "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity posted on Platform X stating that technical analysis (TA) is more akin to "astrology for traders," essentially a combination of confirmation bias and market psychology used to gauge market sentiment, rather than the core factor determining price. The significant surges of multiple individual stocks were not driven by chart patterns, but by fundamentals and expectations. For instance, SIVE rose approximately 1,900%, driven by market repricing of future revenue expectations related to JBL and GFS. AXTI rose around 8,000%, linked to industrial logic such as demand for indium phosphide substrates, photonics, and export controls.

Technical analysis can largely only reflect the psychological expectations of market participants and might be used to find entry points. However, the factors that truly determine stock price trends should include the linkage of industry themes, changes in earnings expectations, the macroeconomic environment, financial report performance, and the structure of the circulating supply. The long-term potential of a stock should be determined by returning to fundamentals and capital structure, rather than "chart faith."