SpaceX Stock Pre-Market Arbitrage Review: 10% Spread Still Existed Yesterday
Odaily News: Ahead of the SpaceX IPO, the SPCX pre-market contract on several CEXs and on-chain Perp DEXs presented arbitrage opportunities due to differences in share count calculations and rebase mechanisms, which multiple KOLs capitalized on. Among them, crypto KOL Silicon Bird | Ray shared: “Last night, I went long on BN and short on HL, still capturing a 10-point arbitrage opportunity. BN issued a rebase announcement last night. Since the initially estimated share count (11.87B) differed from the actual share count (13.08B), SPCXUSDT positions will be converted at a ratio of 1.1. This means BN’s SPCX price will be divided by 1.1, while the position size will be multiplied by 1.1. This created a massive arbitrage opportunity because SPCX on Hyperliquid was also originally launched based on the 11.87B share count. However, the documentation clearly states that Hyperliquid’s SPCX will not rebase (as an HIP-3 DEX, trade.xyz doesn’t have this capability either). Hyperliquid’s current SPCX tracks the Class A common stock price. I submitted a ticket to trade.xyz and received a clear response confirming there will be no rebase.” Additionally, he analyzed the reasons behind "SPCX on trade.xyz will not rebase," stating: “There are several key reasons. Those familiar with Hyperliquid and trade.xyz understand their relationship: the former is a trading-specific L1 blockchain, while the latter is a DEX based on Hyperliquid’s HIP-3. trade.xyz is somewhat like an outsourced team, essentially just setting up a platform within Hyperliquid’s ecosystem.
1. We need to understand that a rebase is an extremely complex operation, involving halting trading, forced liquidations, and reopening positions. This is a major engineering challenge even for large CEXs (such as OKX and BN, which are undergoing this rebase). Smaller exchanges like Bitget have simply given up and opted for a relist. For an on-chain team dependent on another blockchain, this is an even more daunting task.
2. When trade.xyz first launched the contract, it mentioned an estimated share count of 11.87B. However, they later realized this could be controversial and promptly removed any mention of the estimated share count from their documentation. They clearly emphasized that the price tracked by SPCX on trade.xyz is the Class A common stock price of SPCX, and added extensive disclaimers stating there will be no rebase.”
Crypto KOL KyleChen also posted last night: “The optimal hedging strategy should be on OKX’s pre-market perpetual. The IPO subscription cost is 142u, leaving around 14% profit margin. Comparison of three pre-market platforms:
- OKX Pre SpacX: 162u, essentially confirmed as per-share price
- Binance current price: 167u, with an announced rebase scheduled for 6/10 at a factor of 1.1, resulting in an adjusted price around 151.2u
- Hyperliquid: 168u, its pre-market contract is provided via trade.xyz based on HIP-3. From a technical infrastructure standpoint, the contract does not directly support a rebase. The corresponding share count is 11.87 billion, which differs significantly from the actual issued shares of 13.08 billion. It is likely that the old contract will be settled at some point, and a new per-share price contract will be listed.” Finally, in a post today, he noted: “The discount or premium of SPCX across different platforms reflects the market’s pricing of rules and probabilities.”
It is worth noting that this price discrepancy arbitrage opportunity has now narrowed to approximately 3%, and the practical trading window has closed. The above content is intended solely for sharing ideas and does not constitute investment advice.
