新股神Serenity: The Core of Investing is Identifying Industrial Trends That Have Yet to Form a Consensus in the Market

Odaily reported that Serenity stated on platform X that their investment style is fundamentally based on high-conviction independent judgment. The core lies in identifying industrial trends that have not yet formed a consensus in the market, combined with real-world observations, industry research, and revenue projections to conduct high-confidence reasoning. Using Raspberry Pi as an example, Serenity noted that while most investors still viewed it as an educational and DIY hardware tool, they observed a growing number of developers using Raspberry Pi and Apple Mac Mini to deploy AI applications. By verifying this trend through online tutorials, Serenity ultimately deduced that AI would become a new growth engine for the company. Subsequently, the company's financial report showed a 58% year-over-year increase in revenue, surpassing the market's prior expectation of 14% growth. Serenity stated that the investment judgment for AXT was based on research into the indium phosphide substrate supply chain and expectations of a photonics super cycle. They believe AXT holds approximately 40% of the indium phosphide supply chain share, occupying a critical bottleneck position, and its long-term value is undervalued. Regarding X-FAB, Serenity mentioned that they are still in the stage of reasoning and verification. Through government documents, ASE materials, and supply chain information, they found that the company is becoming an important player, and NVIDIA is currently evaluating its relevant capabilities. In the coming months, they will continue to observe whether more evidence supports this investment thesis. Serenity emphasized that many current investment opportunities arise from comprehensive inference based on fragmented information, real-world trends, and industrial changes, rather than relying solely on traditional valuation models.