International Monetary Fund: Market Has Begun to Bet on Fed Rate Hike

Odaily reports that the International Monetary Fund stated the expected timeline for the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target return has been pushed back to the end of 2027, compared to a previous forecast of mid-2027. The market has already begun betting on a rate hike. Due to persistently rising inflation risks, the Fed should act cautiously on interest rate policy. The IMF has observed some inflationary pass-through effects resulting from the US tariff increases, along with renewed upward pressure on overall inflation from energy prices. Global oil inventories are projected to fall to 7.5 billion barrels in July, the lowest level in five years; levels were around 8 billion barrels before the outbreak of the Iran war, which has suppressed approximately 14 million barrels per day of global oil output. Future oil price trends will depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened. (Jin Shi)