Bitcoin's May Decline Signals Seasonal Pattern: Historical Model Points to ~10% Short-Term Pullback Risk

Odaily Odaily reports that Bitcoin has continued to weaken this month, retreating after facing resistance near the $83,000 level. It is currently heading for a May closing decline, which the market views as the re-emergence of the classic "Sell in May and go away" seasonal signal. Historical data shows that after a "Red May" for Bitcoin, the average return over the following 1 month is approximately -10%, and over 3 months it is about -3.3%, typically indicating continued short-term weakness. Based on historical averages, the price could potentially fall back to the $68,200 range.

However, the medium-to-long-term performance shows a clear divergence. Data indicates that after a Red May, the average gain over the subsequent 6 months can reach about +139% (influenced by the extreme market conditions of 2013). Excluding anomalous years, the gain is still approximately +12.9%, suggesting that the long-term trend has not been disrupted by the seasonal signal.

Analysts point out that a "Red May" within a bear market structure tends to be more destructive. For example, in 2018 and 2022, the average decline over the following 1 month was 26%, and the cumulative decline over 6 months approached 46%. If BTC falls below $76,000, it would strengthen the assessment of risk that it is entering a bear market structure. Bitcoin is currently trading near $75,000, still above the key cyclical support level of approximately $60,000, and the market overall remains in a phase of divergence between bulls and bears. (Cointelegraph)