Polymarket probability of "WTI crude oil dropping to $85 by May 2026" rises to 62%, up 32% in 24 hours

According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Prophet Channel, the probability on Polymarket that "WTI crude oil will fall to $85 by May 2026" has risen to 62%, an increase of 32% in 24 hours.

According to a report on the 27th by "Balance", an affiliated news agency of the Iranian judiciary, a "preliminary informal document" outlining a framework for a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States has been disclosed. The document covers issues such as the Strait of Hormuz, regional military deployments, and future agreement arrangements.

According to the document, the U.S. has committed to lifting the "maritime blockade" against Iran and withdrawing some military forces deployed in areas surrounding Iran. In exchange, Iran will, within one month, gradually restore the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-escalation levels, excluding military vessels. The management of vessel traffic and the arrangement of shipping routes will be coordinated jointly by Iran and Oman.

The document indicates that if Iran and the U.S. can reach a final agreement within 60 days, the relevant content may be confirmed in the form of a binding UN Security Council resolution. The report states that the Iranian side has emphasized it will not take any practical action until after completing "practical and verifiable" inspections.

The Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the price is set.