Polymarket predicts 73% probability of SpaceX valuation exceeding $2 trillion

Odaily Odaily reports that bettors on the prediction website Polymarket are forecasting that SpaceX’s market capitalization upon its public listing will almost certainly surpass $1 trillion, with a 73% probability of exceeding $2 trillion. These bets are tied to SpaceX's closing market cap on its first trading day. The company plans to list in June, with an expected target valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion.

Additionally, data from Polymarket shows a 17% probability of its market cap surpassing $3 trillion and a 2% probability of exceeding $4 trillion. The prediction website launched bets on SpaceX's market cap approximately two weeks ago, but trading volume for the related contracts remains low, suggesting the market may be cautious about these probabilities. If SpaceX's market cap does exceed $2 trillion, its size would surpass at least two of the "Magnificent Seven" US tech stocks: Meta Platforms (META.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O), which currently have market caps of approximately $1.5 trillion and $1.6 trillion, respectively. (Jin Shi)