Bernstein: CLARITY Act Yield Compromise to Strengthen Circle's Competitive Edge

Odaily. Bernstein stated in its latest research report that the newly reached compromise on stablecoin yields under the U.S. CLARITY Act is structurally beneficial for Circle and the USDC ecosystem.

The report notes that the current version of the bill prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest to passive holders that is "economically equivalent" to bank deposits, but allows reward mechanisms tied to actual transaction, payment, and usage activities to continue. Bernstein believes this means Circle's current model, which relies on partners like Coinbase to provide USDC reward programs, will gain regulatory recognition, while also limiting the industry's ability to compete for market share through high yields.

Bernstein points out that the bill effectively reinforces the positioning of stablecoins as "payment tools" rather than "deposit substitutes," helping to protect Circle's current business model that relies on reserve income. The firm maintains an "Outperform" rating for Circle with a $190 target price.

Data shows that the total global supply of dollar-pegged stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, with USDT and USDC collectively accounting for approximately 97% of the market share. Bernstein notes that USDC's share in on-chain payments and wallet transfers is steadily increasing, and its share of payments in the AI Agent payment protocol x402 has exceeded 99%.

Additionally, Bernstein mentioned that Circle's ARC chain has cumulatively completed 244 million testnet transactions. The ARC token pre-sale previously raised $222 million, with investors including a16z crypto, Apollo Funds, ARK Invest, and BlackRock.

However, the report also points out that the CLARITY Act still needs to complete multiple legislative procedures before it takes effect, including a 60-vote threshold in the full Senate and coordination with the House version. Polymarket currently estimates its probability of passage by 2026 at approximately 62%. (The Block)