Wintermute: BTC’s Recent Rally Clearly Driven by Leverage, Open Interest Surges While Spot Volume Slumps

Odaily reported that Wintermute’s weekly market report indicates Bitcoin recently broke through $80,000 and briefly touched around $83,000, while also reclaiming the 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months. However, this rally is clearly more driven by leveraged capital rather than spot buying.

The report notes that over the past month, Bitcoin open interest increased by approximately $10 billion, while spot trading volume dropped to a two-year low, a classic short squeeze scenario. Although ETFs still recorded net inflows of $623 million and BTC reserves on exchanges fell to a seven-year low, the current RSI has entered overbought territory. If spot buying fails to sustain after the short squeeze ends, BTC prices could face a rapid correction risk.

Wintermute also stated that the current crypto market rally is more driven by the strength of US equities and the resonance of leverage, rather than an independent bull market narrative. Upcoming US CPI data and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations will be key factors in determining whether BTC can stably hold above $80,000.