Polymarket probability of "WTI crude oil falling to $95 by May 2026" rises to 81%, up 8% in 24 hours

Odaily Seer Channel monitors that the probability of Polymarket's "WTI crude oil falling to $95 by May 2026" briefly rose to 88% this morning, currently at 81%, an increase of 8% in 24 hours.

The event contract rules are as follows: If during any 1-minute K-line in May 2026, the "highest price" of the active WTI crude oil futures month is equal to or higher than the listed price, the market will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, the market will be judged as "No". The price will be based on Pyth's quoted price, without rounding. Previously, the rules for the WTI crude oil March price prediction event contract were: If the official settlement price of the current active month (near month) of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures contract on any trading day is equal to or higher than the listed price as of the last trading day of March 2026, the market will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, the market will be judged as "No".

Trump has pledged to escort the Strait of Hormuz and announced the launch of "Project Freedom," which will begin this Monday to help ships leave the Strait of Hormuz for active negotiations with Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command forces have also announced support for "Project Freedom," aiming to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, providing assistance to merchant vessels seeking to freely traverse this vital international trade corridor.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the pricing.