Analysis: Bitcoin Approaches $76,000 but Market Sentiment Remains in "Extreme Fear"

Odaily News Despite Bitcoin briefly rising to $76,300 this week, market sentiment remains subdued. The Fear & Greed Index is still at 21, in the "Extreme Fear" zone, indicating a significant divergence between price and sentiment.

Institutional views suggest that this round of gains is closer to a "valuation repair" rather than a trend reversal. QCP Capital refers to it as a "relief rally," noting that macro-level pressures from inflation, energy, and policy have not fully subsided. Glassnode points out that Bitcoin is still about 5% below the key resistance level of the "Realized Price" at approximately $78,100, indicating limited depth in the current rebound.

The capital structure also shows divergence. Spot demand and ETF flows have seen some recovery, but profit-taking has increased. Institutional participation remains cautious, and the derivatives market continues to lean towards downside hedging. Exchange data further indicates that demand is coming more from offshore and retail funds rather than being dominated by U.S. institutions.

Analysis suggests that the $75,000 level has become a key support/validation point. If subsequent buying cannot sustain it, the price may fall back to the $70,000 to $71,000 range.

On the macro front, while U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs and oil prices remain elevated without further surges, market risk appetite has improved but uncertainties persist. Market focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's policy path, with the overall environment still posing constraints for crypto assets.

In summary, although Bitcoin is maintaining its rebound, it is oscillating near resistance levels. The market tone remains cautious, and a consistent bullish trend has yet to form. (The Block)