Polymarket Launches New Market: "When Will Israel and Hezbollah Reach a Permanent Peace Agreement?"

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "When will Israel and Hezbollah reach a permanent peace agreement?" The current probability of reaching a peace agreement before April 26th is reported at 9%, and the probability before May 31st is reported at 29%.

A permanent peace agreement refers to any agreement that explicitly states that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses similar wording to clearly indicate that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah will end permanently. Agreements explicitly designated as temporary or final agreements that do not include the permanent cessation of military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah (for example, a temporary extension of a 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026) do not qualify.

The primary information sources for this market are official information from the Israeli government and Hezbollah; however, consensus from other credible reports may also be referenced.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.