Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin May Fall Below $60,000 Before Rising to $250,000

Odaily News Arthur Hayes stated on the Coin Stories podcast that he currently would not invest his last dollar into Bitcoin because the Federal Reserve has not yet been forced to expand liquidity. Arthur Hayes believes that tariff policies will lead to inflation and may prompt the United States to shift towards capital controls, which would become a significant liquidity catalyst for Bitcoin.

Arthur Hayes maintains his long-term target price for Bitcoin this cycle between $250,000 and $750,000, but warns that if the US-Iran conflict persists, Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 in the short term. Additionally, Charles Schwab has confirmed it will launch direct spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum through new accounts in the first half of 2026. Research from Mercado Bitcoin shows that within 60 days following major global shocks, Bitcoin consistently outperforms gold and the S&P 500 index. Currently, Bitcoin's price has recovered to around $67,300, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained in the "Extreme Fear" zone for several consecutive weeks.