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Analysis: Non-farm payroll data still shows significant volatility, and the threshold for the Fed to adjust policy is quite high

2026-04-03 13:33

Odaily News: Zachary Griffiths, Head of Investment Grade Credit at Creditsights, stated: The data is subject to further downward revisions; February saw a reduction of 133,000, indicating significant volatility and frequent revisions in the data, which are typically revised again during annual reviews. Therefore, it's difficult to derive a clear signal from the net data of the past few months. As for the Fed's policy based on this data, the threshold for any policy adjustment is currently very high. I believe they might be in a wait-and-see mode, especially given that we have seen employment data significantly exceed expectations, far surpassing the Fed's discussions on the breakeven level corresponding to the unemployment rate. Consequently, we believe the threshold for a rate hike is higher than that for a cut, but policy is likely to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future, and today's report undoubtedly reinforces this view. (Jin10)