Analyst: Bitcoin Derivatives Market Dominated by Shorts, Longs Continue to Face Liquidation Pressure

Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated in a post, "The Bitcoin Position Index is a comprehensive indicator measuring the aggressiveness of long/short positions in the derivatives market, reflecting the actual opening direction of futures market participants. The 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) of this index reached a local high of +3.0 on March 17 when Bitcoin's price was $73,925, and has been declining continuously since then, dropping to -3.1 today. This reflects the ongoing accumulation of short positions. During the same period, Bitcoin's price fell from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d declining in sync with the market price, further confirming a weakening market structure.

The Liquidation Oscillator has been rebounding and rising continuously since mid-March from 2.9%, reaching 18.6% as of today. This means the market is continuously generating forced liquidations on the long side, preventing structural recovery. The red bars reflecting short liquidation dominance have not appeared since October 2025. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) remains high and significant red bars do not return, pressure on long positions will persist. If the 30DMA reverses downward, it would be the first signal of the beginning of a recovery in liquidation balance.

The reversal of the two indicators occurred simultaneously, confirming each other. Bitcoin's price has fallen approximately 11% from its peak of $74,883. The current derivatives market structure shows no foundation supporting a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, longs are continuously being liquidated, and short squeezes are almost nowhere to be seen. Current operational stance: avoid risk. The main downside risk is: if forced liquidation pressure continues and the position SMA-30d remains below zero, the bearish pattern will further solidify, increasing the downward pressure for Bitcoin's price to fall below $66,000."