TD Cowen: Probability of Crypto Market Structure Bill Passing This Year Only One-Third

Odaily News TD Cowen Managing Director Jaret Seiberg stated in a Monday research report that he is "increasingly pessimistic" about the prospects of the crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, estimating only a one-third chance of it advancing in the Senate and passing the House of Representatives.

The bill remains stalled in the U.S. Senate, with Congress now entering a two-week Easter recess. Seiberg noted that a recent stablecoin yield compromise proposal pushed by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks is "insufficient" to move the bill forward. The proposal prohibits providing yields on idle stablecoin balances but allows activity-based rewards when stablecoins are used.

Seiberg believes this compromise may satisfy neither side: for crypto platforms, it would discourage investors from using stablecoins for liquidity management; for banks, it would incentivize crypto platforms to promote stablecoins for daily payments, threatening core deposit businesses.

Seiberg said the bill is most likely to advance in late July, before Congress's August recess, when the pressure of the recess might force senators to reach a compromise. He also pointed out that even previously optimistic senators are lowering their expectations, with Senator Mark Warner reducing the probability of the bill passing from 80% to 50%-60%.