Polymarket Probability of "U.S. Department of Homeland Security Shutdown Lasting Over 60 Days" Rises to 75%, Up 37% in 24 Hours

Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a temporary homeland security funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown and has sent it to the Senate. The probability on Polymarket for a "U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting over 48 days" has risen to 92%, up 31% in 24 hours; the probability for "lasting over 52 days" has risen to 54%, up 12% in 24 hours; and the probability for "lasting over 60 days" has risen to 75%, up 37% in 24 hours. As of now, the trading volume for this event contract has exceeded $1.1 million.

It is reported that the bill provides level funding for each agency under the Department of Homeland Security until May 22nd, marking the latest attempt to end the partial government shutdown that began on February 14th. The bill passed the House with a vote of 213 in favor and 203 against, with three Democratic lawmakers voting in favor and the rest being Republicans. Nevertheless, the bill is not expected to pass in the Senate and may prolong the impasse of the partial government shutdown. Before passing the House version of the funding agreement, they rejected the Senate version. U.S. House Speaker Johnson stated that Republicans will not participate in any measures to reopen the border or halt immigration enforcement.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.