Analyst: Trump's "Weekend Action" Shadow Reappears, Market Tension Rises

Odaily News According to Investinglive analyst Adam Button, Iran's Revolutionary Guards today clarified the passage rules for the Strait of Hormuz: any vessel traveling to or from ports of countries that "support or are allied with the Zionist-American camp" will be prohibited from passing, regardless of its final destination or route. The emphasis on "port affiliation" here is crucial. Previously, the market had envisioned a scenario where crude oil could still flow through the Strait of Hormuz to "friendly countries" like India, thereby compressing the daily supply gap to 2-3 million barrels through supply chain restructuring. However, based on current statements, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards appear to be preparing for a larger-scale conflict with other Gulf countries, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, weekend risks are gradually heating up in the market. Trump's statements are not always credible, and he has tended to launch military actions on weekends in the past. Currently, the U.S. is amassing forces in the region, and the market fears that after today's market close or early Saturday, Trump might launch strikes on Kharg Island or other Iranian targets. As for whether this will escalate the conflict or deliver a substantial blow to Iran, there remains significant uncertainty. (Jin10)