CoinShares: Bitcoin Miners Approach Breakeven, Accelerating Shift to AI Business

Odaily News According to a CoinShares report, Bitcoin miners are facing significant profitability pressure from late 2025 to early 2026, influenced by the decline in Bitcoin price, the network hash rate nearing historical highs, and a drop in hashprice. In Q4 2025, the average cash cost per Bitcoin for listed miners rose to approximately $79,995, while the hashprice has decreased from around $36–38/PH/s/day to the $28–30 range in Q1 2026, indicating a continued compression of industry profit margins.

The report notes that this is one of the most challenging periods since the 2024 halving. During this time, the Bitcoin price retreated from a high of around $125,000 to approximately $86,000, coupled with intensified hash rate competition, pushing some miners close to or below their breakeven point. Signs of industry "shakeout" have emerged, including three consecutive downward adjustments in mining difficulty (the first since July 2022) and listed miners collectively reducing their BTC reserves by over 15,000 coins, with companies like Core Scientific, Bitdeer, Riot, and MARA engaging in sales. Against this backdrop, miners are accelerating their transition towards AI and high-performance computing (HPC). CoinShares estimates that by the end of 2026, the revenue share from AI business for listed miners could increase from the current ~30% to 70%, with the industry having announced over $70 billion in related contracts. Companies like IREN, TeraWulf, Core Scientific, Cipher, and Hut 8 are speeding up their transformation into data center operators, while others like MARA remain primarily focused on mining. Concurrently, the AI shift is also raising industry leverage levels; for instance, IREN issued approximately $3.7 billion in convertible bonds, TeraWulf's total debt reached $5.7 billion, and Cipher issued $1.7 billion in senior secured notes, indicating a change in the industry's risk structure.

Looking ahead, CoinShares believes mining profitability will heavily depend on Bitcoin price trends: if BTC rebounds to $100,000, the hashprice might recover to around $37/PH/s/day; if it returns to the $126,000 high, it could rise to about $59; conversely, if it remains below $80,000 for an extended period, industry pressure will persist, although the shutdown of some mining machines may help reduce supply and stabilize earnings. (The Block)