Probability of "Crude oil reaching $105 by end of March" briefly drops to 22%, down about 43% intraday

Monitoring by Odaily Seer Channel shows that the probability for the Polymarket event "Crude oil (CL) reaches $105 by the end of March" has dropped to 22%, with an intraday decline of 43%. The current trading volume is approximately $2.91 million.

The current WTI crude oil price remains around $81.5. It had strengthened earlier due to an unexpected EIA inventory drawdown and geopolitical conflicts. However, with macroeconomic uncertainty and a stronger US dollar, market expectations for a short-term breakthrough to higher levels have significantly cooled. According to the latest news, US President Trump stated that recent US-Iran dialogue has made progress, and he has instructed a 5-day delay in related military actions against Iran, alleviating market concerns about supply shocks.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.