CICC: Fed Has Limited Room for Rate Cuts Amid "Quasi-Stagflation"

Odaily News CICC's research report stated that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, aligning with market expectations. The dot plot and economic projections indicate upward revisions to inflation expectations and a narrowing scope for rate cuts, reflecting an overall cautious policy stance. Although Powell believes the uncertainty from oil price shocks is significant and the economy remains resilient, we consider the actual situation to be more complex. Tariffs and immigration policies have already imposed constraints on supply, and coupled with oil price shocks, the U.S. economy is entering a phase of "quasi-stagflation." Concurrently, risks in private credit are emerging, and financial conditions may tighten spontaneously. Against this backdrop, the Fed, constrained by sticky inflation in the short term, may continue to hold steady; in the medium term, as demand weakens or financial risks escalate, policy faces pressure to pivot passively towards rate cuts. We anticipate the Fed may maintain interest rates unchanged in the first half of the year, with a restart of rate cuts likely postponed to the second half. However, if rate cuts are a passive response to deteriorating economic or financial conditions, they are unlikely to boost market risk appetite. (Jin10)