BofA Survey: Rate Cut Expectations Have Significantly Cooled, Geopolitical Conflict Replaces AI Bubble as the "Biggest Tail Risk"

Odaily The Iran conflict is reshaping the global investment landscape and forcing markets to drastically reassess the global economic outlook. The March global fund manager survey released by Bank of America on Tuesday shows that in the face of rapidly changing market conditions, investor optimism is waning, and they have begun hoarding cash at the fastest pace since the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020. With the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and the resulting surge in oil prices, the "biggest tail risk" in the eyes of fund managers has shifted. Geopolitical crises and a rebound in inflation have officially replaced the previous "AI bubble." The rise in inflation expectations has relentlessly suppressed the market's previous bets on interest rate cuts. Currently, only a net 17% of asset managers expect the Federal Reserve to lower policy rates, a stark contrast to the 46% figure in February. (Bloomberg)