Analyst: On-Chain Prediction Market Fees Are Underestimated, Kalshi's $110 Million Revenue in the Past 30 Days Is Highly Likely Accurate

Odaily News Regarding the prediction market revenue ranking previously released by Parity, crypto analyst dash posted on X, stating that Kalshi's data is highly likely accurate. Based on its fee structure and publicly available taker transactions, its fees are approximately $118 million. If trading through Robinhood, the 1% estimate of the notional amount is relatively accurate, with Kalshi's notional trading volume reaching $11 billion in the past 30 days.

Furthermore, the fees of on-chain prediction markets are underestimated. Currently, platforms like DefiLlama primarily track fees in USD or stablecoins, overlooking fees priced in shares. After including this portion of fees, the actual fees for platforms such as Polymarket, predict.fun, and Limitless will be higher, with Predict.fun being about 40% higher and Polymarket about 80% higher.