Economist: Besides Non-Farm Payrolls, Also Pay Attention to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Annual Population Adjustment Tonight

Odaily The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release new population control data for last year, which was delayed due to a 43-day government shutdown. Carl Riccadonna, Chief US Economist at BNP Paribas, stated that the latest data from the Census Bureau shows the BLS has been overestimating population growth since the end of 2024. It is expected that in the adjusted January data, the population aged 16 and over will be revised down by approximately 590,000, the labor force will be revised down by about 370,000, and employment figures from the household survey will see similar downward revisions. Using the BLS experimental series that smooths past population controls and immigration data, combined with the latest Census data, it is projected that the US labor force will grow by only 900,000 in 2025, and overall labor force growth in 2026 is expected to be well below 500,000. The population control adjustment will only affect the January household survey data. This means that month-over-month data for indicators such as household employment, unemployment, and the labor force will not be directly comparable. Aditya Bhave, Economist at Bank of America Securities, noted that the good news is that key ratios (unemployment rate and labor force participation rate) are typically affected very little. Last year, the population control adjustment raised both ratios by 0.1 percentage points, while the risk this year is that the new control adjustment might cause both ratios to decline slightly. (Jin10)