CITIC Securities: Iran situation is still rapidly evolving, and it is difficult to predict and deduce based on the final scenario in one go

Odaily News CITIC Securities research report states that on February 28 local time, the situation in Iran entered a phase of military conflict outbreak. The Iran situation is still rapidly evolving, and CITIC Securities expects it is difficult to predict and deduce based on the final scenario in one go; it is more likely to fluctuate continuously following important signals. CITIC Securities believes that whether potential changes occur in three key signals—U.S. military deployments, changes in Iran's political situation, and the scope of conflict spillover—will determine whether the impact on global markets is an amplified version of the "Twelve-Day War" of June 2025 or moves towards a more extreme scenario. To provide a reference for potential market impacts, CITIC Securities reviewed the market effects of eight major conflicts in the Middle East since 1970, which can be summarized as the following patterns: safe-haven asset gold outperforms the U.S. dollar, oil prices in the long term still depend on supply and demand, U.S. stock performance is directly related to the extent of U.S. military involvement and the course of the war, while there is no significant impact on Chinese assets. (Jin10)