Data: Polymarket Platform's US-Iran Conflict-Related Event Contracts "Attract" $600 Million in Volume

Odaily News Following the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket quickly launched over ten event contracts related to the Iranian situation. These cover topics such as ceasefire timing, the successor to the Supreme Leader, and whether US troops will enter Iran. Since the attacks occurred, the related markets have cumulatively attracted approximately $600 million in trading volume. Among them, the event contract "Will Khamenei lose his position as Iran's Supreme Leader before March 31?" settled at 100% after Iranian state television confirmed his death, with a trading volume of $45 million. The biggest winning account, "Curseaaaaaaa," profited about $757,000 through a "Yes" position, and four other traders made profits exceeding six figures. Additionally, the largest single event contract is "When will the US launch airstrikes on Iran?" Since its launch on December 22 last year, its cumulative trading volume has reached $529 million, with a single-day contract volume of $89.6 million on February 28. Subsequent market data shows that traders generally bet on a phased outcome of the conflict within weeks: the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire before March 2 is only 4%, 15% before March 6, but rises to 61% before March 31 and reaches 78% before April 30. (CoinDesk)