Wintermute: Crypto and US Stock Retail Fund Correlation Turns Negative, US Stock Activity May Become a Leading Indicator

Odaily News Wintermute's latest report indicates that since the end of 2024, the correlation between retail fund flows in the crypto market and US stocks has turned from positive to negative. The report states that while record-breaking retail funds have flowed into US stocks, overall trading activity in the crypto market has become more cautious, with the total market capitalization of altcoins declining in sync with retail activity.

Data shows that the BTC/NDX volatility ratio has been continuously declining, dropping below 2x at one point in the first half of 2025. With the improvement of investment tools like ETFs and the opening of cross-platform trading channels, the switching of funds between crypto assets and traditional stocks has become more convenient.

Wintermute believes that the activity level of US stock retail trading is becoming an important leading indicator for observing crypto market trends, and investors need to examine changes in capital flows from a multi-asset allocation perspective.