Glassnode: Bitcoin Enters "Excessive Loss Realization" Phase, Could Drop to $44,000 if History Repeats

Odaily News On-chain data analytics firm Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is entering an "excessive loss-realization" phase. If historical patterns hold, the price could remain under pressure in the coming months, with a potential downside target around $44,000. Data shows that Bitcoin's 90-day moving average "Realized Profit/Loss Ratio" fell below 1 on Monday, indicating that the market is in a state of net loss selling. This metric falling below 1 typically reflects panic selling, margin pressure, or a decline in macro risk appetite. Historically, after this indicator breaks below 1, it is often followed by a sustained loss realization cycle lasting at least six months; a return above 1 usually signals a relief in selling pressure.

Past bear market experience shows that loss selling typically accelerates during the mid-cycle phase and is accompanied by further price declines. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin's price fell approximately 25% cumulatively in the six months after this indicator dropped below 1; a similar phase in 2018 saw a plunge of over 50% within five months. If history repeats, this current correction could last about five more months, completing the transition to a "full-blown excessive loss realization phase." If the market continues to experience deleveraging and the release of loss realization pressure, Bitcoin's price may remain under pressure in the coming months until the cyclical purge is complete.