Economist Timothy Peterson: Bitcoin Still Has Structural Upside Potential, 88% Probability of Rising by Year-End

Odaily According to the latest analysis by crypto economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin still possesses structural upside potential amid the current bear market correction: Over the past 24 months, 50% of the months recorded positive returns (based on CoinGlass data, positive return months in 2025 include January, April, May, June, July, and September). This indicator suggests a high probability of a positive return inflection point occurring within any 24-month cycle.

Based on this, Peterson calculates: The probability of Bitcoin being above its current level in the next 10 months (i.e., by December 2026) reaches 88%. He emphasizes that this statistical model indicates the market may be approaching a turning point rather than continuing its downward trend. The current Bitcoin price is approximately $68,173, having retreated nearly 25% from the year's high, erasing most of the post-2024-2025 US election gains. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to an "Extreme Fear" score of 9, and social media Bitcoin prediction sentiment has dried up (Santiment data), indicating a shift towards neutral sentiment. (Cointelegraph)