Fed Researchers Say Kalshi Data Can Provide Real-Time Reference for Policymaking

Odaily News Three researchers from the U.S. Federal Reserve System published a paper on February 12, pointing out that data from the prediction market platform Kalshi can reflect macroeconomic expectations more in real-time and should be incorporated into the Fed's decision-making reference framework. The paper's authors include Anthony Diercks, Chief Economist at the Federal Reserve, research assistant Jared Dean Katz, and Johns Hopkins University researcher Jonathan Wright.

The study compared Kalshi data with traditional surveys and market-implied expectations, suggesting that Kalshi can provide high-frequency, continuously updated probability distributions for measuring risk-neutral probabilities of macro indicators such as interest rate decisions. The researchers noted that Kalshi reacts more swiftly following significant policy statements or economic data releases.

However, the report emphasizes that the Federal Reserve research paper is an internal discussion document and does not represent an official policy stance. (Cointelegraph)