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Probability of Fed Maintaining Rates Unchanged in March Rises to 94% After Non-Farm Payrolls Report

2026-02-11 14:11

Odaily According to CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 6.0% (21.7% before the announcement), while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 94.0% (78.3% before the announcement). The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April is 18.8% (35.7% before the announcement), the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 80.4% (58.9% before the announcement), and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.9% (5.4% before the announcement). The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June is 49.4% (49% before the announcement).