Institutions: US January Non-Farm Report May See Record Downward Revision

Odaily News According to institutional analysis, a jobs report with data exceeding the norm is expected to reveal the extent of the US labor market's slowdown in recent years—or possibly show it never grew at all. In addition to the regular monthly non-farm payroll and unemployment data, the January non-farm payroll report to be released on Wednesday will also include the highly anticipated employment data revisions. Preliminary estimates indicate that the annual employment data through March 2025 will be revised downward by a record 911,000 jobs. This revision is expected to significantly lower the pace of employment growth. "This year's annual benchmark revision will be more impactful than in previous years," said Scott Anderson, Chief US Economist at BMO Capital Markets. "The current labor market is truly at a tipping point between net job growth and potential job contraction." Each year when the January jobs report is released, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the non-farm payroll data based on the more accurate but less timely Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data. This data is based on state unemployment insurance tax records and covers most jobs in the US. (Jin10)