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ADP Data Shows 90% Probability of Fed Maintaining Interest Rates Unchanged in March Before Announcement

2026-02-04 13:09

Odaily News According to CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 10%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 90%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April is 21.6%, with a 77% chance of rates remaining unchanged, and a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 44.8%.