Matrixport: BTC Remains in a Bear Market Environment, but Maintains a Relatively Positive Outlook on Overall Risk Assets

Odaily News: Matrixport posted an analysis on the X platform, pointing out: From on-chain data and technical indicators, Bitcoin is still in a bear market environment. The most intuitive signal is that the price remains below the 21-week moving average. Simultaneously, U.S. midterm election years are typically accompanied by increased policy uncertainty and fluctuating risk appetite. This time window also overlaps with the typical four-year cycle phase of Bitcoin, during which prices have historically been more prone to weakness. Even so, a relatively positive outlook is maintained for overall risk assets.

The reflation narrative persists, and the U.S. dollar remains in a relatively weak operating range. To hedge against the pressure from weakening purchasing power, U.S. dollar-denominated capital typically tends to maintain a relatively high allocation to risk assets. Recently, Trump has neither sent a clear signal of support for a weaker dollar nor made strong statements against it. The market tends to interpret this as an increased tolerance for further dollar weakness. Coupled with some international capital increasing allocations to non-U.S. assets and reducing concentration in U.S. assets, against this backdrop, reflation trades may still find support in the short term.