Wintermute: The Four-Year Cycle is Being Phased Out, Liquidity and Investor Attention are the New Drivers of the Crypto Market

Odaily News Wintermute posted on platform X, stating that the traditional Bitcoin four-year cycle is being phased out. Market performance is no longer determined by self-fulfilling time-based narratives, but rather by the flow of liquidity and the focal points of investor attention.

Wintermute's over-the-counter (OTC) liquidity data shows that the transmission of crypto-native wealth weakened in 2025. ETFs and DATs have evolved into "walled gardens," providing sustained demand for large-cap assets, but capital does not naturally rotate into the broader market. With retail interest shifting towards stocks, 2025 became an extremely concentrated year, with altcoin rallies averaging 20 days, down from 60 days in 2024.

For 2026, for the market to break out of the constraints of major coins, at least one of the following three things needs to happen:

1. ETFs and DATs expand their investment scope, with ETF applications for SOL and XRP already showing initial signs.

2. Strong performance from major coins; a robust rally in Bitcoin or ETH could generate a wealth effect and spill over into the broader market.

3. Retail attention shifts back from stocks (AI, rare earths, quantum) to cryptocurrencies, bringing new capital inflows and stablecoin minting.

The outcome for 2026 will depend on whether one of these catalysts can significantly broaden liquidity beyond a handful of large-cap assets, or if concentration will persist.